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Stock markets in India started the trading weak on a negative note as participants reacted to higher crude oil prices. Market sentiment was impacted after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered India's growth forecast. However, the sentiment got a lift in the latter half of the week following a sharp correction in crude oil prices.
A host of polls and reports by ratings agencies on India’s growth influenced market sentiment during the week. The ratings agency India Ratings has pegged India’s GDP growth for FY21 at 5.5%. However, it expects downside risks to persist. Additionally, it also expects the shortfall in the tax plus non-tax revenue will lead to slippage in fiscal deficit to 3.6% of GDP (budgeted 3.3%) in FY20, after accounting for the surplus transferred by the RBI.
Another report, this one by Thomson Reuters-Ipsos said that it expects consumer sentiment to fall by 7.3% in January 2020. The report added that the pessimism is caused by the depleting confidence around personal spending and investments, which is further augmenting concerns surrounding economic growth. However, the report also showed that confidence for jobs has slightly moved up as compared to the previous month.
Oil prices see-sawed during the week due to two opposing developments. Oil prices spiked on Monday after two large crude production bases in Libya shut down due to a military blockade. The market reacted negatively as participants felt that this could curtail crude flows from Libya to a trickle. However, by the end of the week oil prices fell to their lowest in seven weeks on concerns that the spread of a respiratory virus from China may lower fuel demand.
Institutional activity during the week has been quite interesting. While foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been buying Indian equities, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have taken to aggressively selling Indian equities. During the period 17th Jan-20 to 23rd Jan-20, FPIs have net bought Indian equities worth INR 1395.75. The bulk of this buying was done on 23rd January 2020. In the same time period, DIIs have net sold Indian equities worth INR 3539 crore.
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