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Stock markets in India have had a relatively benign week, as they witnessed mild swings to close the week on an almost flat note. Macro-economic data released during the week was mixed and consequently precluded the emergence of a strong trend. Global sentiment did impact domestic market activity while buying interest by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) kept larger losses at bay.
Macro-Economic Updates
On the macro front, India's exports rose by 17.86% to $26.98 billion in October 2018 mainly due to the low base effect even as trade deficit widened to $17.13 billion, according to the commerce ministry data. Imports during October 2018 also rose by 17.62% to $44.11 billion, leading to widening of trade deficit to $17.13 billion. The deficit widened despite a steep decline of 42.9% in gold imports to $1.68 billion during the month under review. The trade gap was $14.61 billion in October 2017. Another spot of positive news came from IIP numbers. India's industrial production grew 4.5% in September 2018 compared to the upward revised 4.7% in August 2018. August 2018 growth had initially been estimated at 4.3%. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index cooled down a bit and stood at 3.31% in October 2018 compared to 3.70% in September 2018. Additionally, the annual rate of inflation, based on monthly Wholesale Price Index (WPI), stood at 5.28% (provisional) for the month of October 2018 (over October 2017) as compared to 5.13% (provisional) for the previous month and 3.68% during the corresponding month of the previous year.
Global Updates
In the global commodities market, Brent for January 2019 settlement was down 26 cents at $65.21 a barrel. The contract fell $4.65 a barrel or 6.63% to settle at $65.47 a barrel during the week. A fall in crude prices could augur well for the Indian economy considering that India imports a majority of its crude requirements. Market risk sentiment improved following British Prime Minister Theresa May’s statement that she had obtained enough support for her proposed Brexit deal to move forward. The uncertainty surrounding a deal had earlier weighed on risk sentiment. However, a spate of resignations from Prime Minister Theresa May's government, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, snipped this recovery at the bud. Across the Atlantic, US stock snapped a multi-day slide after media reports suggested that the US and China may step up efforts to resolve their trade conflict, starting with postponing higher tariffs and allowing working-level negotiators to iron out a deal.
Institutional Activity
During the week, foreign institutional investors have maintained a long bias on Indian equities having net bought Indian equities worth INR 2657.64 crore since 12th November 2018. A fillip was given to the market sentiment after provisional data released by the stock exchange indicated that Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 2043.06 crore on 15 November 2018. Domestic institutional investors have net sold Indian equities worth INR 1172.61 crore, since 12th November 2018.
Source:
The material contained herein has been obtained from publicly
available information, internally developed data and other sources believed to
be reliable, but BNP Paribas Asset Management India Private
Limited (BNPPAMIPL) makes no representation that it is accurate or complete.
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