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Stock markets in India are having a fairly volatile run as they oscillated between the positive and negative zones throughout the week. Indices started the week on a negative note as a sharp drop in IIP numbers dented investor sentiment. However, later in the week, benign inflation numbers at home and stimulus measures in China spurred interest in equities and encouraged investors to participate in the markets. Macro-economic developments at home, the US-China trade war concerns and political developments both in the UK and US, influenced investor sentiment and precluded the emergence of a clear trend.
Macro-Economic Developments
India's index of industrial production (IIP) (base year 2011-12=100) moderated sharply to 0.5% in November 2018, compared with 8.4% growth recorded in October 2018. The industrial production growth for October 2018 has been revised upwards from 8.1% increase reported provisionally. The output of the manufacturing sector declined 0.4%, while the electricity generation growth moderated to 5.1%% in November 2018. Further, the mining output growth also eased to 2.7% in November 2018.
On the inflation front, the all-India general CPI inflation eased to 2.19% in December 2018 (new base 2012=100), compared with 2.33% in November 2018. The corresponding provisional inflation rate for the rural area was 1.65% and urban area 2.91% in December 2018 as against 1.71% and 3.12% in November 2018. The core CPI inflation was flat at 5.73% in December 2018 compared with 5.70% in November 2018. The monthly Wholesale Price Index (WPI), stood at 3.80% (provisional) for the month of December 2018 (over December 2017) as compared to 4.64% (provisional) for the previous month and 3.58% during the corresponding month of the previous year.
India's merchandise exports rose 0.3% to US$ 27.93 billion in December 2018 from while merchandise imports declined 2.4% to US$ 41.01 billion, leading to 7.9% dip in the trade deficit to a 10-month low of US$ 13.08 billion in December 2018 from US$ 14.20 billion in December 2017.
Global Developments
In the UK, Prime Minister Theresa May's plan to leave the European Union by a March 29 deadline was rejected overwhelmingly by the parliament, triggering more uncertainty as the country struggles to engineer an orderly exit from the trade bloc. In a crushing defeat, 432 members voted against May's proposal while 202 voted in favour. However, UK Prime Minister Theresa May's government survived a vote of no-confidence in parliament, a day after her proposed Brexit plan was overwhelmingly rejected by lawmakers. Global stocks also got a bit of a boost advanced after it was reported that US officials are considering lifting some tariffs on Chinese products in an effort to elicit more concessions from China for a bilateral trade deal and to stabilize the financial markets.
Institutional Activity
Both Foreign institutional investors (FIIs)and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have been net buyers of Indian equities this past week. FIIs have net bought Indian equities worth INR 179.17 crore since 14th January 2019. In the same time period, DIIs have net bought Indian equities worth INR 521.47 crore. So far this month, FIIs have net sold Indian equities worth INR 2193 crore while DIIs have net bought Indian equities worth 1843 crore.
Source:
www.nseindia.com
Bloomberg.com
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